China's 2018 aluminum demand seen rising 6% to 36.9 million
- Source: chemnet
refined aluminum demand in 2018 was forecast to rise 6% to 36.9
million mt from the estimated 34.8 million mt this year, state-run
metals consultancy Beijing Antaike said.
from the aluminum alloy wall, aluminum bridge and solar aluminum
extrusion sectors have risen in recent years, providing new demand
growth amid a slowdown in growth in the major consumers --
construction, transport, electronics and power, Antaike said.
net refined aluminum imports in 2018 were seen at 30,000 mt, steady
versus this year, Antaike data showed.
national aluminum supply was seen at 38.03 million mt in 2018, up 5.6%
from 36.03 million mt this year, with a national aluminum surplus of
1.13 million mt next year, from a surplus of 1.23 million mt in 2017.
had domestic aluminum supply of 18.59 million mt in the first half of
2017, up 19.8% year on year, Antaike data showed. Domestic aluminum
demand was up 9.6% to 17.5 million mt, with a national aluminum
surplus of 1.1 million mt as compared with a deficit of 440,000 mt in
forecast a fair number of new, low cost aluminum smelting capacity to
be commissioned in 2017-18, paving a way for future domestic refined
aluminum output growth.
gradual withdrawal of existing, high cost aluminum smelting capacity
in China and the slowdown in the rate of domestic economic growth,
will make it difficult for domestic aluminum demand to grow fast in
2017-18, Antaike said.
agency forecast aluminum production growth in 2018 to slow to 5.6% for
output of 38 million mt. National refined aluminum output in 2017 is
forecast to be 36 million mt, up 10.3%.
ADD 7 MILLION MT/YEAR NEW ALUMINUM CAPACITY 2017-18
forecast aluminum smelting capacity growth in 2017-18 to be below
previous expectations given the market, fund, environment protection
and government policy factors, and estimated 7 million mt/year new
refined aluminum output capacity would be added.
predicted China to have national aluminum smelting capacity of around
47 million mt/year by the end of 2018.
over 80% of China's aluminum output capacity was equipped with their
own power units, most of them thermal power ones.
agency said supply-side reform meant the coal price gap in various
parts of China was expected to narrow, so the power cost gap among the
key aluminum production zones in Shandong, Shanxi provinces and
Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia autonomous regions should narrow in coming
years, with raw materials such as alumina, carbon anode, fluoride salt
set to be the key factors affecting future aluminum smelting costs.
said the slowdown in investment in Chinese aluminum smelting projects
would ease the conflict between domestic aluminum capacity growth and
inventory growth, so supporting aluminum prices in the long run.